The Zeitenwende in Security and Defence: Opportunities in Central & Eastern Europe

Germany, Poland, and many other countries in the region are taking the new European defence architecture very seriously, with increased massive investments, and opportunities, for established corporations, as well as for start-ups and non-traditional players

Technology, power and dependency: the European pulse that is favoring massive investments in security and defence

During the summer of 2025, the German Federal Cabinet approved a draft law aimed at expediting defence procurement processes. Enabled by a special fund, this initiative allows for faster allocation of resources to the Bundeswehr and Federal Police. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) hailed the legislation as a “quantum leap” towards enhancing national security.


Under the leadership of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), the new German government is embracing a significant shift in mindset regarding the necessity of increased defence spending. While the financial press reports almost daily on new developments, it is becoming more evident that German industry —already chronically affected by workforce shortages— may struggle to meet the actual needs of the German and allied defence forces. This situation creates potential opportunities for new players in countries considered as reliable, mainly European partners, NATO allies, and other Western partners.


One example in the aerospace field: At the end of September, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced at the BDI Space Congress a special plan to invest €35 billion by 2030 in a new space security and defence architecture. This includes the development of a proprietary satellite constellation —similar to Starlink— which could also be utilised by the Ukrainian military. The plan encompasses surface stations, launch facilities, radar and telescope systems, surveillance satellites, as well as deterrence and offensive space systems. To enable this, investment and technological development will accelerate exponentially. Dual-use technologies will also be promoted, particularly in relation to Earth navigation and observation systems. Furthermore, three German regions will invest €6 billion in civilian applications by 2029.


In July, Adam Casals referred to further challenges and opportunities around the EU's goal to achieve technological autonomy, even sovereignty, regarding multiple issues, from a future European skyshield to cloud data infrastructure.


Additionally to the “Zeitenwende” in Germany, new opportunities are arising in neighbouring countries with relevant procurement capabilities, from Poland and the Baltic Republics, to Nordic countries like Finland and Sweden.


[Picture: "Technology, power and dependency: the European pulse that could favor Spain". Article by Adam Casals at Agenda Pública, July 2025]


Europe is rearming as the European Commission urges greater commitment from countries with lower defence spending

Even those countries that have traditionally allocated a smaller share of their GDP to security and defence, such as Spain or Austria —one of only two non-NATO members within the EU— are now increasing their expenditure at a remarkable pace.


With an investment of €33.12 billion, the Spanish Ministry of Defence announced in June 2025 that its defence expenditure had reached 2.0% of Spain’s GDP. Austria is also contributing to Europe’s defence readiness. In 2026, an expenditure of €5.18 billion is projected, representing almost a doubling of the defence budget compared with 2020.


Yet these impressive increases appear insufficient for the European Commission. In autumn 2025, Lithuanian EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius, demanded from Brussels that all EU member states —particularly Spain— raise their defence budgets to reach the target of 3.5% of GDP, as foreseen for NATO members. Any discrepancy, he warned, would lead to consequences for security policy. As Adam Casals reported in Militär Aktuell, Kubilius urged haste despite progress made during the first year of his mandate —including the European rearmament plan—. Europe, he argued, must learn faster, particularly in areas of modern warfare such as drone defence. His conclusion: “If you want peace, prepare for defence.”


Several analysts consider that a further increase in defence expenditure, in all EU-countries, is to be expected.


[Picture: "Europe is rearming: EU-Commissioner Kubilius urges Spain to a higher commitment". Article by Adam Casals at Militär Aktuell, November 2025]

Germany is taking the Zeitenwende very seriously. As it does its press and main media

Some examples:

📰 Handelsblatt Nr. 131, 07/25: Der Bomben-Boom: Europa rüstet auf, doch es fehlt an Fabriken und Personal —eine Preisspirale droht. Kaufen wir überhaupt das richtige?

📌 Der Spiegel Nr. 28, 07/25: Die neue Kriegsangst: Wie sich Deutsche auf den Ernstfall vorbereiten.

📌 Manager Magazin, 08/25: Die neuen Krieger: Die Tech-Elite im Drohnenrausch: Wie deutsche Start-ups die Rüstungsriesen deklassieren.

📰 Handelsblatt Nr. 195, 10/25: Der neue Krieg: Wie die Fortschritte in der Drohnentechnologie Rüstungsbranche und Politik aufmischen. 

📌 Wirtschaftswoche Nr. 42, 10/25: Der unheimliche Boom: Rheinmetall ist Krisenprofiteur und beste Aktie im Dax. CEO Armin Papperger will mehr.

CEO, Casals'Company

Senior Global Affairs & Geopolitics Advisor, International Columnist, Author. Expert in Central and Eastern European Markets, European Complexity, Country Risk Analysis, Security and Defence. 

Former Regional Government Envoy to Austria and Central Europe.